Letter From The Editor, John Norris
If you only had one word to best explain the 1st quarter of 2025, it would probably either be exhausting or confusing. Perhaps it would be a combination of the two. Exfusing has a certain ring to it. Who knows? Exfuse could be the verb, and exfusion might work as a noun.
The only certainty after the first quarter is that it is finally over.
After a solid start to the year in January, the markets posted a lot of red ink during February and March. Global tariff threats and DOGE-driven budget cuts weighed on both consumer and business sentiment. However, it remains to be seen just how much of an impact this loss of confidence had on actual economic activity.
The initial read suggests the U.S. economy likely contracted during the 1st quarter. While consumer spending slowed, much of the decline stems from a significant deterioration in our trade deficit, as businesses rushed to stock up on their imports prior to any tariffs taking effect. Fortunately, this type of short-term decline on the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) equation tends to self-correct when imports decrease over subsequent quarters.
The question now: will the slowdown continue?
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Second Quarter Predictions
Rate cuts, cooling inflation, rising unemployment rates, ongoing deficits, continued volatility, bond market buffering and even a little turmoil in the fast-food industry top our Investment Committee’s list of predictions for the next few quarters of 2025.
First Quarter Equities
After two years of record-breaking gains, the stock market hit a wall during first quarter of 2025. Investors are left questioning everything from tariffs and inflation to the future of the Magnificent 7. As volatility rises & economic clarity remains uncertain the big question is: Can markets regain their footing?
2025 First Quarter Key Takeaways
Stark contradictions ruled the start of 2025 – resilient economic data stood in contrast to declining consumer sentiment, surging gold prices, volatility & looming tariffs. From tech turbulence to DOGE-driven restraint, uncertainty continues to define our economy.
Asset Allocation: First Quarter 2025
Having flexibility in an investment portfolio is like having insurance. It’s better to have it before you need it. Sometimes that may mean taking a little more risk off the table. Sam Clement, Portfolio Manager, breaks it down this edition of Macro and Market Perspectives.
Special Report: The Yield Curve
The yield curve offers valuable insight about where we are headed. Like the tip of an iceberg, it reflects a much larger, more complex set of economic forces that aren’t immediately visible. As policy shifts and the economy adapts, keeping an eye on the yield curve helps investors & business stay informed.
Special Report: The Golden Age
Gold is on a roll—outpacing the S&P 500 and riding the pulse of global uncertainty. Central banks are boosting their reserves and investors are seeking safety from market volatility. For a metal with no cash flow, what’s fueling the surge? Its role as a store of value has never been more relevant.
