Letter From The Editor, John Norris
If you had told me on February 27, 2026, the U.S. would start a war with Iran the next day and the S&P 500 would rally over 15% during the second quarter of 2026, I would have thought you were crazy. After all, weren’t we afraid a war with the Iranians would or could get really ugly really quickly? That the price of crude oil would skyrocket? Taking the global economy along with it?
Or so we thought.
To be sure, the mess in the Middle East hasn’t been as clean as this American would have liked. Theocracy hasn’t fallen yet, but the conflict hasn’t really spread as much as many may have feared. To be sure, crude oil prices shot up in March and April, but they came back down pretty sharply in May and June.
As for the economy, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) announced in June the U.S. economy grew at a 2.1% annualized rate during the first quarter of 2026. (1) Unless all the economic data we have seen since the end of March has been wrong, the economy likely grew modestly during the second quarter as well.
Put another way, IF war with Iran was expected to significantly weaken the U.S. economy, we didn’t appear to get the message. That, or it was garbled in transmission.
Read Our Letter from Our Chief Economist
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Third Quarter Predictions
What could the next six months bring? Oil prices, Treasury yields and AI investment are just a few of the themes our Investment Committee is watching through the end of 2026.
Second Quarter Equities
Despite higher oil prices and inflation concerns, corporate earnings remained the primary driver of equity markets.
Key Takeaways from Q2
What mattered most this quarter? From interest rates and inflation to AI, IPOs and the economy, here are our key takeaways on the developments that shaped the second quarter of 2026.
Asset Allocation: Second Quarter 2026
Easing geopolitical tensions, resilient economic data and improving market breadth created a more constructive investment environment during the second quarter. Even so, we continue to favor a balanced and disciplined portfolio.
Special Report: IPOs
Why waves of new public offerings can reveal as much about investor sentiment as they do about the companies going public.
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