Letter From The Editor, John Norris
At the end of 2025, my forecast for the upcoming year was: “if you liked the U.S. economy this past year, there is a good chance you will like it in 2026.” There was little in the available economic data to suggest anything other than relatively modest growth in aggregate.
To be sure, as is always the case, some sectors had a better go of it than others. However, where the rubber meets the road, our analysis suggested there was little reason to expect the costs of either money or energy to experience significant directional change.
As a result, it was difficult to forecast either a spike or a collapse in economic activity. If history serves as a guide— while acknowledging historical patterns are not predictive— the U.S. economy doesn’t just turn on a dime or pivot dramatically without cause. It often takes something significant to knock things out of equilibrium.
Then, well…let’s just say March Madness took on a whole new meaning.
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Second Quarter Predictions
From oil shocks to AI—and even some possible shake-ups on the snack food aisle—our investment committee sees a “low-hire, low-fire” economy, a weaker dollar, and a cautious Fed shaping the second quarter of 2026.
First Quarter Equities
How a late-quarter geopolitical shock reversed early market leadership and reshaped the outlook for equities, leaving markets to do what they do best—react in real time to incomplete information.
2026 First Quarter Key Takeaways
The first quarter was marked by uneven inflation, rising oil prices, fading hopes for rate cuts and a growing “Vegas effect.” When people feel flush, they go; when they don’t, they stay home—raising more questions than answers.
Asset Allocation: First Quarter 2026
Volatility is a natural and necessary component of functioning markets. The key is not to avoid it entirely, but to be positioned in a way that can withstand it— and ultimately take advantage of it.
Special Report: Crude Oil
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have escalated, and whether or not it’s called a war, markets are increasingly pricing in rising risk—primarily through oil.
Special Report: The Cost Of Necessity
The gap between economic data and consumer sentiment points to a growing divide in the health of the consumer. Why do everyday essentials feel increasingly expensive, yet discretionary spending remains resilient?
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