Macro & Market Perspectives

Second quarter was a roller coaster, shaped by a volatile mix of global tension, economic strength and stubborn inflation.

Letter From The Editor, John Norris

At the beginning of the 2nd quarter, many people questioned how things could get any more chaotic than they were in the first. It didn’t take long to find out. 

On April 2, speaking from the White House Rose Garden, President Trump announced a broad slate of tariffs on the remainder of the world. The larger the U.S. trade deficit with an individual country, the higher the tariff. Everyone, however, got at least a 10% tariff, as the president exercised authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977. 

Let’s just say the markets’ reaction wasn’t very positive. According to data from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), the S&P 500 fell from 5,670.97 at the close of trading on April 2 to 4,982.77 at the end of April 8. That is roughly a 12.13% principal decline over four trading sessions. Obviously, that wasn’t a lot of fun. 

Then came the waiting game.

We spent the remainder of the quarter agonizing over tariff announcements, parsing the president’s social media posts and speculating about the Federal Reserve’s next move. Would it cut the target overnight lending rate again? If not if, then when? 

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State of the Economy

A volatile first half marked by inventory swings, inflation fears and a Fed that’s focused elsewhere. In the words of Mr. Dylan: “The times, they are a-changin’.” 

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Third Quarter Predictions

Tariff trade-offs, easing home prices, expected rate cuts, geopolitical tensions and brewing pressure in the beer industry top our Investment Committee’s list of predictions for the remainder of 2025. 

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Second Quarter Equities

It was a quarter full of reasons to panic— tariffs, tech volatility and talks of recession. And yet, the market did what it often does: climbed the wall of worry. But how much higher can it go? 

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Key Takeaways from Q2

Rising tariff threats took center stage, unsettling consumers. Trade tensions spiked, the dollar slid and gold soared. While uncertainty lingered, markets shrugged, tech rebounded and the Fed held firm on rates.

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Second Quarter Asset Allocation

Second quarter 2025 brought plenty of turbulence—but also opportunity. Our Investment Committee leaned into flexibility, rebalancing portfolios with a long-term view while staying nimble amid sharp market swings. Here’s how we positioned for what’s next.

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Special Report: Trade, Tensions and Trump

From “Liberation Day” to record market highs — what Trump’s second-term trade policy means for investors, businesses and consumers. 

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Special Report: Iran’s Role in the Global Energy Market

Resource-rich but revenue poor, Iran remains one of the most underappreciated forces in global energy — and one of the most disruptive when tensions rise. 

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Macro & Market Perspectives

2nd Quarter Key Takeaways 2025

ECONOMIC GLOBALIZATION  During the 2nd quarter, economic globalism either seemed to have died or veered wildly off course. If actions speak  louder than words, domestic investors didn’t really seem  to mind too terribly much.  TARIFF THREAT…

Macro & Market Perspectives

State of the Economy

Predicting the future of U.S. economic growth used to be pretty easy. All you did was take what happened during the previous quarter, then either add or subtract based on your analysis of a host of…

Macro & Market Perspectives

Asset Allocation

I wish I could say, “What a great quarter to unplug from the markets.” But the 2nd quarter of 2025 seemed to be one of the  more exhausting in recent memories — at least dating back…

Macro & Market Perspectives

Third Quarter Predictions

With illegal border crossings decreasing and self-deportation on the rise, the U.S. economy could eventually see an overall decrease in consumer demand — either from fewer people consuming goods or lower-than-expected population growth. Obviously, this could…