After work this past Tuesday, I went to The Fresh Market supermarket near the office to pick up a couple of steaks. My wife and I were celebrating some big news our daughter had received earlier in the day. Specifically, she had passed her audition for The Second City in Chicago, and would be entering its conservatory program. In the comedy world, this is arguably the equivalent of getting into an Ivy League MBA program.
At this particular store, they sell boneless/skinless chicken breasts and ground chuck for about 50% off on Tuesdays. Not surprisingly, this is pretty popular. It is all the more so now since The Fresh Market recently closed its only other outlet in Birmingham, and Publix turned its hoity-toity GreenWise Market in Mountain Brook Village into, well, a Publix.
In the past, Fresh Market would occasionally sell out of meat at the special pricing. However, as of late, the stuff is often long gone prior to the after-work crowd getting there. Not surprisingly, late arrivers don’t like this turn of events one little bit.
So much so, the other night, one particular shopper gave the guy behind the counter a real earful. I mean, she was furious. Indignant. Fit to be tied. Why couldn’t the man just go to “the back” and make a bunch of low-cost meat magically appear? She didn’t want to hear his “excuse” that they were physically out of chicken breasts and chuck roasts to turn into hamburger. She needed 4 packages of chicken! Finally, she pulled out the old “I am going to speak to your manager about this” threat, and walked away in a huff.
The butcher, who is a super guy by the way, simply rolled his eyes. He was out of what she wanted, and probably doesn’t make enough to care. After all, he works for what is essentially a subsidiary of Chilean-based Cencosud S.A., which has in-excess of 125,000 employees across numerous brands and 6 countries.
Now, this is the point in the newsletter where I can take one of two paths.
- I can discuss how corporatism is negatively impacting customer service.
- Or, I can analyze what it might mean when shoppers are furious when the upscale grocer runs out of their deeply discounted products.
I think I will go with the latter.
The Fresh Market – Premium Finds for An Upscale Shopper
Make no bones about it. The Fresh Market, or any other store for that matter, runs specials in order to get customers into the store. On Tuesdays, it hopes the allure of cheap animal protein will get you in there, and you end up buying a bunch of other overpriced merchandise. Trust me, the company doesn’t really love folks who only buy 4 packages of their deeply-discounted chicken breasts, their loss leaders.
I couldn’t help but wonder how unique that angry woman was. Ordinarily, the angry women I come across are angry at me and for good reason. Hey, I was just standing there minding my own business. Still, how many people must have come through the store, most of them likely purchasing in bulk, to completely wipe them out by 5:30? What’s more, the butcher mentioned that they had processed more than normal in anticipation of greater demand due to the closure of the other The Fresh Market in town.
Hmm. Are people really going to drive extra distances or get into an argument with the staff over a $3 savings on a single package of hamburger? Some people likely would, but I sure wouldn’t. They would have to be buying a significant amount to make it worth their while. What’s more, given the rest of the merchandise in the store, The Fresh Market doesn’t appear to be, nor does it position itself as, the go-to place for the cost-conscious shopper.
So what happens when the price-agnostic shopper starts changing their spending habits? What does that mean for the economy?
Walmart & Sam’s Club – Basic Essentials and Bulk Discounts for the Cost-Conscious Consumer
On Thursday morning, Walmart (WMT) announced its most recent quarterly earnings. It was a pretty impressive report. In full disclosure, WMT is a core holding of ours, and we own common shares of the company across client accounts on our system. However, a few things in the press release really stood out more than others.
“Value-convenience proposition continues to resonate with customers and members; share gains across income cohorts primarily driven by upper-income households.” Highlights on Walmart U.S.
“Strong comp sales, led by food and health & wellness as well as increases in transactions and unit volumes.” Highlights on Sam’s Club U.S.
“Strong growth in membership income, up 14.4%, with record total membership and Plus penetration at quarter end.” Highlights on Sam’s Club U.S.
Huh. That is pretty interesting, because the two times I went to Sam’s Club in the past quarter it was groaning with people. Okay, maybe it wasn’t quite as bad as the holiday shopping season. However, there was a noticeable difference in the amount of foot traffic. Lots of groceries and paper products, which was exactly what I was buying.
Again, what does it mean for the economy? Interestingly enough, it might mean absolutely nothing, at least as far as the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) equation is concerned.
The issue with economic growth isn’t where you shop. It is how much you buy and spend when you shop. If you take the money you save on groceries and spend it on something else, the GDP equation is largely ambivalent, for all intents and purposes.
Does that make sense? Economic activity is more dependent on how much you spend, as opposed to where you spend it. It makes sense when you think about it. In fact, you could even argue more people buying their groceries at a discount club, like Sam’s, might be beneficial for the remainder of the economy. After all, they will have more money available to purchase other products or services.
But is that what is happening here? Consumers are being conscious about growing the economy by shopping at Sam’s Club, hectoring the butcher at The Fresh Market and driving greater distances in order to save a few bucks on chicken and hamburger? Probably not.
They are simply acknowledging the obvious: food is completely inelastic.
You have to have sustenance in order to survive. There are not any alternatives. Eat or die. However, where you buy your food is decidedly more elastic. Does it really matter where you buy, say, your Driscoll’s strawberries? Rao’s marinara sauce? Barilla pasta? Activa yogurt? Lea & Perrin’s Worcestershire Sauce? Shoot, your Kraft Macaroni & Cheese dinner? The brands are all the same. So, again, does it really matter?
When it comes time to plate dinner, not at all.
But, it has to mean something when upper-income shoppers become coupon-clippers and bargain-basement jumpers, right? Perhaps it means nothing for the overall economy in the short-term. However, it could be a real problem for stores carrying an elastic product or service in an otherwise inelastic industry. With that in mind, we are probably getting ready to find out just how much many shoppers are willing to spend on fair trade, free range, non-GMO, organic and a host of other food label tags which dictate a higher price.
As for me, last Tuesday, I bought two steaks and two twice-baked potatoes. I opted for the choice cute, because the price for prime was too dear for a weeknight dinner. Unfortunately, while I seasoned and cooked the things to perfection (really!), my steak was borderline flavorless. But, what the heck, we were celebrating Annie for getting into The Second City, right?
Besides, you know who has good steaks, and they seriously do? Sam’s Club. I guess I will go there next.
Have a great weekend.
Thank you for your continued support. As always, I hope this newsletter finds you and your family well. May your blessings outweigh your sorrows on this and every day. Also, please be sure to tune into our podcast, Trading Perspectives, which is available on every platform.
John Norris
Chief Economist
Please note, nothing in this newsletter should be considered or otherwise construed as an offer to buy or sell investment services or securities of any type. Any individual action you might take from reading this newsletter is at your own risk. My opinion, as well as those of our Investment Committee, is subject to change without notice. Finally, the opinions expressed herein are not necessarily those of the rest of the associates and/or shareholders of Oakworth Capital Bank or the official position of the company itself.