During the Spanish Civil War, Francisco Franco was famous for supposedly having said he had four army columns approaching Madrid, as well a fifth that was ready to attack from inside. The implication was the Nationalists had spies, mercenaries and others inside the city ready to revolt against the Republican regime. Whether he actually did is anyone’s best guess. Still, to this day, the term “fifth column” means a group within an area at war who are sympathetic to and/or collaborating with its enemies.
However, what if today’s fifth columnists didn’t actually know they were working for the enemy? That they were fifth columnists? Interesting.
In the Chinese classic manuscript “The Art of War,” Sun Tzu makes the following recommendations in order to defeat an enemy (Lionel Giles translation):
- All warfare is based on deception.
- Therefore the skillful leader subdues the enemy’s troops without any fighting; he captures their cities without laying siege to them; he overthrows their kingdom without lengthy operations in the field.
- Supreme excellence consists of breaking the enemy’s resistance without fighting.
So how do you break an army’s resistance without fighting? Sun Tzu implies one way is to break the so-called Moral Law. This is:
- The Moral Law causes the people to be in complete accord with their ruler, so that they will follow him regardless of their lives, undismayed by any danger.
In other words, arguably, the best way to defeat your opponent is to cause division in their country. To create a divide between the government and the governed, as well as between the governed themselves. As Abraham Lincoln famously borrowed from the original passage from the Gospel of Matthew: “every kingdom divided against itself is brought to desolation, and every city or house divided against itself will not stand.”
Divide your enemy, and you will break their resistance. If you break their resistance, you can defeat them without fighting. Without fighting, you don’t drain your treasury and you get to reap the spoils of war more effectively.
It all seems so easy. But how to do it? Do you like “The Twilight Zone?” If so, you might remember an episode called “The Monsters Are Due on Maple Street.” Get people fighting amongst themselves, and chaos will eventually ensue.
Personally, I am not sure how you/we/they could devise a better method of fomenting domestic discord than what we call social media. Does it really make anyone feel good about themselves? Oh, to be sure, there are a fistful of people who have been able to make good money with their modest talents and attractive features. They probably like it, but the rest of us?
In the past, I have written in this newsletter about how I closed my Facebook account and completely disengaged from Twitter. The reason being was pretty simple: they made me feel bad about myself. It not that, then angry. It seemed I was always missing the party or excluded from the event on Facebook. However, even that was a little preferable than the vitriol one received on Twitter for not agreeing with the preferred line of thought or reasoning. That was most unpleasant. One might even say I saw a glimpse of the so-called cancel culture, and I didn’t like it.
Shoot, here I was in my late 40s and early 50s getting upside-down about social media! I can only imagine what its impact on the younger and more impressionable was and is. Probably not good.
Admittedly, I still maintain my Instagram account, but my children would submit I don’t use it correctly. I rarely post anything, and only infrequently share anything with anyone else. In truth, my Instagram feed, if that is what it is called, would suggest I have three primary interests in life: college football, Asian food and Kate Middleton. I mean, you click on someone’s picture once and it sort of gets creepy real fast.
I digress.
In all seriousness, when I look into my crystal ball, the current divisions in our society and what passes for discourse, let alone truth, gives me pause about our nation’s economic future. You might be wondering: social media? Twitter? Cancel culture? Come on, Norris, really?
That discord can destroy a society is intuitive. That insecurity, conformity and silence can kill an economy might not be. However, think about it. What drives a thriving economy? Regulations? Labor laws? Those sorts of things? Or is it risk? Plain and simple.
After all, any investor will tell you the more risk you are willing to take over time, the more reward you should receive. It isn’t terribly difficult. While Gordon Gekko said, “greed is good,” I would counter with “risk is the fuel which drives economic growth.”
If this is indeed the case, let me ask you this: who is more likely to take risk? Someone who is secure or someone who is insecure? Also, what type of society engenders risk taking? One that encourages a sharing of ideas and differences of thought? Or one that only has room for the proverbial party line?
So, if Sun Tzu is correct, who would benefit from having us fight amongst ourselves? Making us doubt our words and our actions? That we aren’t good enough? That our country is flawed? That is right: our enemies.
Admittedly, I am running the risk of sounding like a conspiracy theorist. A real crackpot. The more I read and the more I hear, the more I am convinced we have to start finding some common ground lest our enemies take advantage of our weakness.
Hey, the fifth columnists are already here, and they are ready to get to you. That is if you give them a chance. Please don’t.
Thank you for your continued support. As always, I hope this newsletter finds you and your family well. May your blessings outweigh your sorrows on this and every day. Also, please be sure to tune into our podcast, Trading Perspectives, which is available on every platform.
John Norris
Chief Economist & Conspiracy Theorist
Please note, nothing in this newsletter should be considered or otherwise construed as an offer to buy or sell investment services or securities of any type. Any individual action you might take from reading this newsletter is at your own risk. My opinion, as those of our Investment Committee, is subject to change without notice. Finally, the opinions expressed herein are not necessarily those of the rest of the associates and/or shareholders of Oakworth Capital Bank or the official position of the company itself.