The 2nd quarter of this year was once again a challenge for stock pickers. It’s pretty easy to sum up the quarter’s performance with one word: NVIDIA. Traditionally known for gaming GPUs, NVIDIA had the foresight to focus on AI years before its competitors. As AI use has emerged across every industry, NVIDIA has reaped the rewards of early investment.
AI has inarguably taken over the thoughts and conversations of everyone involved with the markets for over a year now, and it isn’t just about NVIDIA. Roughly 70% of the top 20 performers this year are related to AI, whether it be the chips, data storage or the companies supporting the substantial energy demands required for AI (more on that later). What makes NVIDIA so unique is the size. Depending on the day, it’s the largest company on earth, with a market cap of around $3 trillion as I write this.
THE STOCK MARKET
Zooming out a bit and asking how this impacts the markets as a whole, the answer is: significantly. When the largest company and biggest holding in the S&P 500 is up 150% in six months, it can distort how the market as a whole is doing. You could look at the S&P 500, up roughly 15% year to date, and say the market is strong, and things are great. If you are a broad market investor, then things are great. This is a pretty important piece to the benefits of a broad market portfolio.
The flip side of this is what I referenced in my first sentence. If you do not have exposure co these few names, then things have not been as great. Not bad by any stretch, but not as great. The equal weighted S&P 500, which cakes out the massive weighting of the big tech names (and especially NVIDIA this year), is up roughly 5% year-to-date. Double chat for the full year and you are looking at a 10% annualized return – not bad! This aligns with the long-term average returns for the market.
OAKWORTH INVESTMENT COMMITTEE’S STRATEGIC ALLOCATION
So, what does this lengthy intro mean for our portfolios and our allocation going forward?
First, and thankfully, we continue to maintain exposure to large tech and the names chat have driven the majority of the returns so far this year. Without it, our returns would look more similar to the equal weighted index described above.
Second, it begs the question, what will the back half of the year look like?
The second half of the year, which will surely continue to have AI dominate the conversation, will likely be driven by two major events or themes.
- First, the Federal Reserve will eventually give in to the long-anticipated cut of the Fed Funds rate. The massive sell-off of 2022 and a large chunk of the volatility we have seen (sparingly) can be attributed to this, as interest rates are the lifeblood of capital markets and are at the heart of all valuations. Pretty important stuff.
- The second event will be the presidential election in November. This will have implications for the next four years and beyond.
As the first half of the year progressed, our strategy and process around allocations remained consistent: Enjoy the good times but find opportunities to diversify as good times do not last forever, especially in the markets. What is loved one day can be hated the next, and with the markets forward looking, at least seemingly, it is not always just about a company’s growth but also about the valuation attached co it and forward expectations. This last part is what makes forecasting in the back half of the year difficult. The companies performing well in the markets are doing well for good reason. They are where the strength is, and are the source of revenue growth. It is not purely speculative as to why the stocks have done well. In fact, some of these companies have gotten cheaper as the year goes on and as their stock price inflates, simply due to revenue and earnings growth outpacing the stock growth.
However, valuations still matter. The S&P 500 is trading at 22 times next year’s forecasted earnings, while the equal weighted S&P 500 is trading at around 17 times forward earnings. Last quarter, we discussed how other stocks would begin contributing more to market returns, and while that has begun, we expect this trend to continue. Our asset allocation continues to match chat outlook as we continue to pull from the growth side of the market and put money toward the value side as the valuations and opportunities for growth continue to be more attractive there.
As I mentioned earlier, the energy sector is an area in which we continue to be optimistic. The United States is going to continue to demand more and more energy due to population growth and rising consumption. The death of the energy sector has been greatly exaggerated. The “dead dinosaurs” that we extract from the ground are a key input in almost everything we produce and the shift to electric alternatives is decades away. Even then, there will still be a need for crude oil. We have seen car manufacturers shifting back toward hybrids, away from full EVs, due to insufficient demand and high costs.
Energy companies are in the best position they have been in for the past several decades. Continued demand for crude will allow these highly profitable companies to continue their core business and return capital to shareholders.
While the United States has its own election to focus on, in the investing world things are always relative. How do things in the United States look compared to the rest of the investing universe? Each time I hear that question I think of the joke, “I don ‘t have to outrun the bear; I just have to outrun you.”
The remainder of the G7 is either struggling with a recession or teetering on the edge of one. Meanwhile, we just wrapped up our eighth straight quarter of positive GDP, with the consumer still showing propensity to spend. Wrap all this up, and we continue to maintain an overweight position in the United States – something that is unlikely to change in the near future.
BONDS
People say bonds are boring, and lately I agree. The back and forth that the bond market is experiencing continues with a winner yet to be declared. Will rates move higher as the almost $2 trillion of supply overwhelms prices, or will they move lower as fears around an economic slowdown persist? While the amount of supply is undoubtedly an issue for bond market bulls, to our team, it makes more sense to continue to keep our fixed income duration short and enjoy the greater-than-5% yields while they last. Sometimes the best move is no move.
Overall, for us it has been a great start to the year. We have enjoyed the rally in the areas that have outperformed and we have worked to lower the overall volatility for the portfolio without having to hurt overall returns. The future is always unknown, but on the precipice of some major macroeconomic and geopolitical events, we have found it prudent to make the moves we have in anticipation of the back half of the year. While we aren’t predicting the back half to be as smooth of a sail as the first half, we remain excited for the future and are ready to make changes as the time comes.
This content is part of our quarterly outlook and overview. For more of our view on this quarter’s economic overview, inflation, bonds, equities and allocations, read the latest issue of Macro & Market Perspectives.
The opinions expressed within this report are those of the Investment Committee as of the date published. They are subject to change without notice, and do not necessarily reflect the views of Oakworth Capital Bank, its directors, shareholders or employees.