There is an old expression in the investment industry: “Don’t fight the Fed.” It doesn’t matter if the Fed is being foolish or not. In the short term, it just simply doesn’t pay to bet against it.
- The Fed raised the target overnight lending rate an additional 1.25% during the 4th quarter. That made it a total of 425 basis points for 2022, the Fed’s most aggressive calendar year in at least 50 years.
- For the past 40 years, bonds provided some safety when stocks fell apart. This wasn’t the case in 2022, as once in a generation inflation pushed interest rates higher. As a result, the broad domestic fixed-income market, as defined by the AGG exchange-traded fund, posted a negative double-digit return last year. This was significantly worse than the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
- After years of posting outsized returns, large-cap growth stocks took it on the chin in 2022. Formerly high-flying so-called FAANG stocks (Facebook/Meta, Amazon, Apple, Netflix, Alphabet/Google) and Tesla trailed the S&P 500 by a wide margin. This was due more to investor angst than disastrous company performance.
- To show you how weird 2022 was, at times the U.S. economy had its highest inflation in 40 years. However, the U.S. dollar hit highs last seen 20 years ago. Ordinarily, these move in opposite directions. As a result, traditional inflation hedges, like gold, didn’t work as well as envisioned.
- Facing its first real higher interest rate cycle in 2022, the cryptocurrency market absolutely fell apart. Was the collapse due to the hubris of shady characters like Sam Bankman-Fried? Or was it due to the fact it is hard to be a store of value when you are an intangible asset with no intrinsic worth?
- The post-Cold War status quo got a little frostier in 2022, as both China and Russia flexed their military muscle. While Vladimir Putin met stubborn resistance in Ukraine, it is safe to say America’s harsh words haven’t stopped its two biggest potential adversaries from building their arsenals.
- Despite the powers that be telling us Russia’s aggression in Ukraine would drive global commodity prices through the ceiling, by the end of the year, the global markets were no worse for the wear, in aggregate.
- With more than 10 million jobs available in the U.S. economy for most of last year, the American worker had the best bargaining power in years. Unfortunately, this showed some signs of abating by the end of December, as businesses stopped trying to fill some of those openings.
- Although the much-ballyhooed “red wave” didn’t happen in the November elections, the Republicans were able to regain control of the House of Representatives. This should be enough to produce gridlock in Washington, which is exactly what the economy and markets need after wild pendulum shifts in policy over the last several years.
- In how the government does its calculations, inflationary pressures showed signs of abating by the end of 2022. However, prices and shortages were still all over the place for many items, especially foodstuffs. This will likely carry through into 2023 when you might not be able to find crab at any price. However, there will be more soft drinks than anyone could possibly drink.
- As contentious as our politics have been, the remainder of the world seems to have it worse. From the U.K.’s prime minister mess to China’s lockdowns and bellicosity to Japanese assassinations to war in Eastern Europe, the dysfunction in Washington seems somewhat tame by comparison.