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Macro & Market Perspectives

Insights from 2024 | Visions for 2025

Letter From The Editor, John Norris

At the end of 2023, very few had high expectations for the upcoming year. There were any number of headwinds facing the economy, and the U.S. stock markets had just had a surprisingly strong year. The U.S. was going to have a contentious election season, and the geopolitical climate was a mess.

So uncertain were the prospects for 2024, most folks would have been more than happy with middling economic activity and modest investment returns. As we all well know now, both the economy and stock market more than exceeded expectations.

  • Employers kept adding jobs, creating consumers in the process.
  • The federal government spent trillions of dollars it didn’t have.
  • Local and state governments, awash in tax receipts thanks to inflation, went on a buying spree.
  • Businesses invested massive sums in new technologies.

In fact, the best way to describe 2024 is that just about everything behaved much differently than anticipated.

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State of the Economy

Most economic indicators pointed to a slowdown in 2024, but the U.S. economy shattered expectations. What drove this unexpected strength? How did so many forecasts miss the mark? And more importantly— what can the economy do for an encore? It appears all bets are off.

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2025 Predictions

Will 2025 deliver the same magic as 2024? Market uncertainty, political gridlock, energy challenges and global instability paint a complex picture for the year ahead. Our Investment Committee anticipates heightened volatility and cautious expectations.

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2024 Equity Markets: A Review

Falling inflation, resilient consumers and the Magnificent 7 propelled the markets in 2024. Will the trend continue or is volatility on the horizon for 2025?  While a 24% S&P 500 return seems unlikely, investors can still look forward to a solid year ahead.

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2024 Key Takeaways

From the Fed’s rate cuts to soaring tech stocks and the strengthening U.S. dollar, surprises were everywhere. 2024 was a year where perception often clashed with reality – both in markets and politics. The consequences are set to shape 2025.

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Asset Allocation: Positioning for 2025

After a strong 2024, what’s next for the markets? While uncertainty looms, we continue to remain cautiously optimistic about what 2025 will bring. From broadening equity performance to fixed-income challenges, our outlook unpacks what could shape your portfolio this year.

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Special Report: 2024: A Year In Review

Throughout 2024, our Investment Committee navigated economic shifts and while staying nimble enough to capture upside potential. Check out our 2024 timeline to see the key market-moving events that shaped our portfolio strategy.

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Special Report: The D.O.G.E

Can the Department of Government Efficiency (D.O.G.E.) deliver on its promise to cut $2 trillion in federal waste? Will it streamline operations or will it struggle against political gridlock? Our Investment Committee explores challenges, opportunities and global parallels in this special report.

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Macro & Market Perspectives

2024: A Year in Review

The year 2024 was another strong year for performance, even though we started to see signs of strain. Amid Middle East and Eastern European turmoil, higher interest rates and domestic union strikes, the S&P still managed…

Macro & Market Perspectives

2025 Predictions

After two consecutive years of outsized returns, it remains to be seen what U.S. stocks can deliver in 2025. The easy-money bet would be for increased volatility and lower returns in the upcoming year. However, you…

Macro & Market Perspectives

2024 Key Takeaways

THE FEDERAL RESERVE It has been so long since the Federal Reserve had a “normal” easing cycle that many investors seem to have forgotten an important distinction: the Fed only cuts the overnight rate, not all…

Macro & Market Perspectives

State of the Economy

FIRST: REVIEWING THE PATH TO 2024 Toward the end of 2023, I participated in a podcast with a nationally recognized economist about the prospects for the upcoming year. His forecast for the first half of 2024…

Macro & Market Perspectives

Economic Overview

In 2024, particularly during the 3rd quarter, the only economic releases that have truly mattered relate to either labor markets or inflation. Everything else has been almost irrelevant. The ISM Report(s)on business? Big deal. Durable goods…

Macro & Market Perspectives

2024 Year-End-Predictions

At the end of the 3rd quarter, The People’s Bank of China made several monetary policy changes to help to support the struggling financial system and economy in that country. At first, global investors cheered the…