As featured in the Bay Business News. One of the scariest phrases in investing is “it is different this time.” Typically, it isn’t. A common thought is that history repeats itself — but if it doesn’t…
Thought Leadership
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The S&P 500 posted three consecutive calendar years of double-digit percentage gains, recording its seventh best three–year stretch on record (WSJ).1 The U.S. economy, as bifurcated between economic classes as it has been, has held up better than many expected, even with the Federal Reserve’s tight posture from 2022 through most of 2024.2 However, beginning in September…
For over a decade, international markets have been viewed as the slower-growing “little brother” to the United States — constrained by legislature, financially cautious and lagging in innovation. But in early 2025, that narrative began to change. A combination of fiscal spending, increased defense investment and improved global sentiment toward valuations of international equities has begun to reshape how…
The fourth quarter of the year unfolded with a noticeably different character than much of what investors experienced in Q3. While volatility never fully returned in a sustained way, markets displayed more complexity beneath the surface, with broader participation…
THE SHUTDOWN The U.S. government officially “shut down” during the 4th quarter of 2025, and the U.S. economy didn’t fall apart. While plenty of people across the country felt impacts from the government impasse, it seems Washington D.C. might have been hurt worst of all.1 That isn’t terribly surprising. MARKETS…
Both 2023 and 2024 were very kind to equity investors, with very strong returns for both years. With high valuations, and even higher levels of political uncertainty as we entered 2025, there was some concern from investors that a third…
At some point in the not-so-distant future, the American public will likely get to enjoy the political theater of yet another government shutdown. If recent history serves as a guide, the U.S. may continue to use a scattershot approach to foreign policy. The proverbial $64,000…
Due to the Federal government shutdown from October 1 through November 12, 2025, the investing public didn’t have access to a significant amount of pertinent economic data. After all, if the workers who compile things like the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the…
As we look back on 2025, one theme stands out clearly: markets once again appeared more resilient than the prevailing mood. Global conflict, elevated interest rates and persistent questions about economic durability continued to dominate headlines. Yet, much like the…
At the end of 2024, my economic forecast for 2025 was similar to what it had been for the previous year. The year would start off a little slower than anyone would like, and would accelerate…