2020 Election Projection Part 3: Gridlock

Applicable as of July 1, 2025: Oakworth Asset Management, LLC (“OAM”) is a registered investment adviser that is owned by Oakworth Capital Bank Inc., Member FDIC (“OCB,” or together with OAM, “Oakworth”). Please note that OCB and OAM are separate entities that provide different services. All investment adviser services including investment management and financial planning are provided by OAM. OAM only began operations on July 1, 2025. Any content that was created prior to that date is specific to OCB and not OAM and is provided for informational purposes only. The statements or opinions expressed in this article do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of OAM. The article was produced prior to OAM’s registration as an investment adviser and therefore was not reviewed for compliance under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940. OAM believes that the prior content is appropriate because of the similarities in OAM services to OCB services. The individuals involved in the production of OCB content will also be involved in OAM services. For additional information about OAM, including its services and fees, send for the firm’s disclosure brochure using the contact information contained herein or visit advisorinfo.sec.gov.

 

Although it is not currently the odds-on favorite to happen, if you asked a lot of people this is what their prediction would be: 1) the Democrats maintain the House of Representatives, and; 2) the Republicans hold on to both the Senate and the Executive Branch.

As recently as August, the betting markets had the Republicans as the favorites to win the Senate, however, some recent data in key swing states suggests the path to reelection might not be as clear as originally thought. All this being said, it still remains very well in the realm of possibilities the Senate and White House remain red. So, what does this mean for the government if, well, nothing happens? If nothing changes? Unless the two sides decide to become less polarized, this probably means one thing. Gridlock.

Based on what we have seen over the past four years, we can get a pretty good feel for what is going to happen. As they say, the more things change the more they stay the same. Here are our major implications for a blue House, red Senate, and another four years of Trump.

Read here