This past week, I started and finished a book called Mockingbird by Walter Tevis. Truthfully, I had never heard of it until about 15 minutes before I ordered a copy. It just sounded interesting, and strangely topical despite originally coming out in 1980. I mean what’s not to like about dystopian futures where advanced robots and artificial intelligence threaten to exterminate humans?
Judging from the expression on my wife’s face when I told her about it, there must be plenty to not like.
Way back when, those 46 years ago, Tevis’ bleak vision of the future might have been pretty depressing. Perhaps that is the reason why this very good read has yet to make it to the silver screen. If it had come out in say, 2015, it would have already made it into the theaters. As it is, well, Mockingbird is a dystopian science fiction book that is almost a half-century old.
Let’s just say a lot of other, arguably similar, content has hit the marketplace over the years.
Without divulging too much of the plot, a central tenet of the story is that humans have become too lazy to read or even work hard. There are no books, and humanoid robots perform virtually all of the meaningful tasks. In essence, people came to rely on technology to the point they didn’t know how to live. They were completely incapable of taking care of themselves, and too stupid to care.
Can you imagine a world with no intellectual curiosity? Perhaps it isn’t as difficult to do as it should be.
On June 12, 2026, SpaceX went public, opening trading at $150/share. By 1:40 pm CDT, they were over $169, valuing the company at over $2 trillion.(1) This, despite the company having never officially turned a profit, with accumulated retained earnings of ($41.311 billion) through the end of the first quarter of 2026.
So, what is the Price/Earnings ratio (P/E) for SpaceX here in June 2026? That is a trick question, as you must have a denominator to calculate P/E. If there is no E, then there is no P/E. Regardless, on June 12th, the company was one of the largest in the world in terms of market capitalization. How large?(2) Well, on June 11, 2026, ASML Holding (ASML) was the largest company in Europe, excluding the British Isles, with a market cap of less than $700 billion.(3)
The numbers are dizzying, and, in my opinion, the IPO lived up to the considerable hype on June 12.
But why?
Speaking only for myself, and not for anyone else at Oakworth Capital Bank or Oakworth Asset Management, I think the interest behind and about SpaceX has more to do with, dare I say it, intellectual curiosity than it does financial performance. The temptation of what could be is far more appetizing than what has been and is.
Consider this paragraph from a ‘live update’ by Capoot, Haddad, et.al, on June 12, 2026, at 2:30 pm EDT:
Musk said on a JPMorgan Chase livestream before the IPO that SpaceX had been cash-flow positive since around 2015. He said he wanted to take SpaceX public now to raise capital for “a significant growth phase,” with plans to put over 100,000 satellites in orbit for communications, and to build artificial intelligence data centers in space, among other initiatives. (4)
Come on. In today’s economy, which is chock full of bankers, accountants, lawyers and any number of other paper pushers, myself included, there aren’t a lot of people like Elon Musk. There never have, has or will be.
If past performance is indicative of future results, and we all know I am supposed to say it isn’t, Mr. Musk has a made a career of turning science fiction into non-fiction, pursuing ambitious projects that many initially viewed as unrealistic. There is little reason to believe he will stop now.
If he doesn’t, it likely won’t be because he didn’t try.
Think about it. What kind of hype would SpaceX have had if, say, Jim Farley was the CEO? While I am sure there would still have been some of the hype, do you think it would have been the same? Wait…who is Jim Farley? He has been the CEO of Ford Motor Company since 2020. You know Ford? That multinational automobile manufacturer which has been around since 1903?
Yes, Farley runs it.
Hey, I am not trying to pick on the guy. I could have chosen just about any other CEO in the country, the world even. Would any of them have brought the same sizzle as Elon Musk? Would they have been perceived as the same level of visionary? Would they have commanded the same sort of begrudging respect? To anywhere near the same degree?
Basically, would SpaceX be a $2 trillion company, in terms of market cap, BUT FOR Elon Musk?
While it is impossible to answer that question because he is the company’s founder and CEO, I suspect the answer would likely be NO. While I can’t quantify how much Musk’s reputation and past results mean to the overall success of the company’s IPO, I would imagine they are significant.
Of course, I could be wrong. The neat thing about that is we won’t have to wait terribly long to find out if I am.
OpenAI and Anthropic, two other massive AI company/leaders, have filed for US IPOs and will apparently test the markets’ appetite for even hard companies whose products stretch the limits of credulity. (5)
Interestingly, the apparent investor demand for things like AI and SpaceX is noteworthy to me. The reason is pretty simple. While domestic investors love profits, as they always will, they also loved to be challenged intellectually. They love visionaries and what-ifs. The stuff that pushes the limits of human understanding and proves naysayers wrong. They appear willing to embrace uncertainty in pursuit of innovation and future growth opportunities.
As for whether AI and advanced robots will cause the extinction of human beings, who knows? Maybe. Something likely will, eventually. If history serves as a guide, although it doesn’t even if it does, the end result will ultimately be pretty disappointing for our species.
But there is a lot of really cool stuff that will happen between now and then, and it seems domestic investors happen to love it.
Who knew science fiction was so popular?
Thank you for your continued support. As always, I hope this newsletter finds you and your family well. May your blessings outweigh your sorrows on this and every day. Also, please be sure to tune into our podcast, Trading Perspectives, which is available on every platform.
John Norris, Chief Economist
SOURCES:
- CNN – SpaceX Shares Debut After Biggest IPO in History, June 12, 2026.
- The Wall Street Journal – SpaceX is Already the Sixth Most Valuable Public Company, Passing Tesla, June 12, 2026.
- FinanceCharts – Biggest Companies in Europe by Market Cap for June 2026, accessed June 11, 2026.
- CNBC – SpaceX IPO Takeaways: SPCX Closes at $161, Jumping 19% After Record Debut. June 12, 2026.
- Reuters – OpenAI Files for US IPO After Anthropic as AI Giants Head to Public Markets. June 8, 2026.
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