Years ago, the rock group Green Day had a pretty massive hit with the song “Wake Me Up When September Ends.” It is a good one, and one of the very few rock songs I can sing somewhat on key at karaoke.
Although the tune has nothing to do with the current state of the markets, if for no other reason than it came out in 2004, I suspect more than a few investors were pleased when September ended this year. After all, the third quarter of 2026 was another roller coaster ride of geopolitical uncertainty, economic head-scratching and monetary policy recalibration. (1)
- The economy hasn’t been creating a lot of jobs, but businesses don’t seem to be firing a lot of people either. (2)
- Inflation hasn’t come down the way anyone would like, and
- The Federal Reserve raised the overnight rate during the quarter. (3,4)
- The conflicts in Ukraine and now Iran seem to be wreaking havoc with the world’s energy markets. (5)
When will they be over?
Come to think of it…
What are “we” trying to accomplish in the Middle East, at least in the manner in which we are trying to accomplish it? How much more does the U.S. consumer have to keep spending on fuel? Is artificial intelligence going to lead to the extinction of the human race? Are they going to put up a data center in my neighborhood? Will the upcoming midterm elections upset the already overturned applecart in Washington? How much is it going to cost to fill my tank next month? When will the price of beef start to meaningfully go down?
The list of questions and proverbial “bricks in the wall of worry” seemed endless during the quarter. Perhaps not surprisingly, the markets, both fixed income and equities, seemed to limp toward the finish line by the end of September, at least as of the 28th.
As a result, any predictions about the upcoming fourth quarter of 2026 are necessarily vague. While that has always been somewhat the case, there is very little to be gained by “sticking your neck out too far” at this point. After all, the war with Iran could suddenly end, and things might look a lot different. The same could be said about the upcoming elections. Perhaps the final vote tally might give investors something to cheer about. Maybe the Russians and Ukrainians agree to some type of armistice, although that does not appear imminent as I type.
In short, there have been very few times in my career when everything has seemed to be in as much flux as it does on Sept. 28, 2026. As such, the best I can do is to say something along the lines of:
There doesn’t appear to be anything on the immediate horizon suggesting everything is going to completely unravel. On the flip side, there is equally little to suggest everything is about to accelerate from here.
If that is indeed the case, perhaps we will be humming “Wake me up when December ends” in a few months. That isn’t currently a song, but it could be if I put the right inputs into AI. Perhaps that is saying more about the future than anything else.
John Norris
Chief Economist and Chief Investment Officer
Sources:
- US Bank – The New Monetary Policy Debate Facing Global Central Banks. August 28, 2026.
- The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland – The “Low-Hire, Low-Fire” Labor Market. August 4, 2026.
- CFO Dive – Inflation Slams Consumer Sentiment to Four-Months Low: Survey. September 25, 2026.
- FederalReserve.gov – Federal Reserve Issues FOMC Statement. September 16, 2026.
- IMF Blog – How the War in the Middle East is Affecting Energy, Trade, and Finance. March 30, 2026.
Advisory services, including investment management and financial planning, are offered through Oakworth Asset Management LLC, an SEC-registered investment adviser and a wholly owned subsidiary of Oakworth Capital Bank, Member FDIC and Equal Housing Lender. Registration with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission does not imply a certain level of skill or training. Investment products and services offered through Oakworth Asset Management LLC are not deposits, are not FDIC insured, are not bank guaranteed, may lose value, and are not insured by any federal or state government agency. Due to the ownership relationship between Oakworth Capital Bank and Oakworth Asset Management LLC, conflicts of interest may exist to the extent that either entity recommends the services of the other. Additional information regarding Oakworth Asset Management LLC, including its services, fees, and conflicts of interest, is available in the firm’s Form ADV at www.adviserinfo.sec.gov.
This communication is provided for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment, legal, tax, accounting, or other professional advice. The views and opinions expressed are those of the author(s) as of the publication date and are subject to change without notice.
The information presented is general in nature and is not intended to address the specific objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any individual investor, account, or client relationship.
Nothing contained herein constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security, investment product, or investment strategy, nor should any information presented be relied upon as the basis for making an investment decision. References to specific securities, companies, industries, sectors, market indices, economic conditions, political developments, or geopolitical events are provided solely for informational and illustrative purposes and should not be interpreted as investment recommendations, endorsements, or predictions of future investment results. Investment strategies discussed may not be suitable for all investors. Individuals should consult their own financial, legal, tax, accounting, and other professional advisers before making any financial decisions.
This communication contains general information that may not be suitable for every investor and may be based on assumptions, estimates, opinions, and forward-looking statements that are subject to change. Actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied, and no assurance can be given that any expectations, forecasts, or opinions discussed herein will be realized.
Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results and should not be relied upon as a predictor of future performance. There is no guarantee that any investment strategy will achieve its objectives or avoid losses.
Any references to market indices are provided for illustrative purposes only. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Index performance reflects the reinvestment of dividends, where applicable, but does not reflect the deduction of fees, expenses, or transaction costs, which would reduce returns. It should not be assumed that any client account will achieve returns comparable to any index discussed.
Information contained herein may be obtained from third-party sources believed to be reliable; however, Oakworth Asset Management LLC and Oakworth Capital Bank do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of such information. References or links to third-party content are provided solely as a convenience and do not constitute an endorsement of any third-party views, products, or services.
Oakworth Asset Management LLC does not provide legal or tax advice. Individuals should consult their attorney, accountant, or tax adviser regarding their specific circumstances.