THE INFLATION FRUSTRATION GAP
We have traditionally maintained that “inflation is wherever you want to look for it.” This remained true throughout the first quarter of 2026. According to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for February, the price of “uncooked ground beef ” had risen 15.2% over the previous 12 months. On the other hand, televisions were down 4.1%. Naturally, consumers buy hamburgers far more frequently than TVs.
TARIFFS AND THE GROWING TRADE DEFICIT
According to the Federal Reserve, the U.S. ran an estimated $911.7 billion trade deficit in 2025. For comparison, the deficit was $903.5 billion in 2024 and $774.2 billion in 2023. Weren’t those tariffs supposed to improve our trade imbalances?
A COLLEGE FOOTBALL WORST TO FIRST
The Indiana Hoosiers, historically one of the weaker NCAA FBS programs, won the college football national championship in January. This capped off a perfect 16–0 season, a first for any FBS team. In 2023, just two seasons prior, the Hoosiers were 3–9, with a 1–8 record in the Big Ten. Miracles really do happen.
THE LOW HIRE, LOW FIRE ECONOMY
The U.S. labor market started 2026 like they ended 2025: “low hire and low fire.” This means sluggish job creation coupled with few massive layoffs. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the economy added 126,000 payroll jobs in January 2026 and shed 92,000 jobs in February, for a net add of only 34,000. The question then remains—how much longer can the consumer-driven U.S. economy continue to grow if it isn’t creating many new consumers?
THE VEGAS EFFECT
Las Vegas’ tourism slump continued into the start of 2026. Historically, some people have made the case that Sin City is an economic indicator of sorts. When people are flush with cash and feel good about things, they go to Vegas. When they don’t, they
stay home. Is this slowdown an ill wind? Or does it reflect the simple fact that gambling has become so ubiquitous, you don’t have to go to Las Vegas to do it?
WAR, OIL, SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Most adults know the basics of supply and demand. When the supply of something is less than the demand, its price will go up. The inverse is also true. However, it seems the armed conflict in the Middle East also affects prices. In our observation, there seems to be a positive correlation between bombs and crude oil prices. That doesn’t mean we have to like it, though.
MOVING MARKETS WITH TWEETS
In the past, we’ve said that “politicians typically get too much credit for the good times, and too much blame for the bad.” However, the current administration is making us rethink this conviction. More than any other president in recent memory, President Donald Trump seems to be able to move the markets with his comments, tweets and not always predictable actions.
A VOLATILE QUARTER FOR GOLD
Even “boring” assets like gold have become more exciting. First-quarter gold prices swung as investors shifted from rate-cut hopes to rate-hike fears amid rising crude oil. Despite the volatility, many still believe gold hasn’t lost its luster.
IS AI DESTRUCTIVE OR PRODUCTIVE?
When folks weren’t talking about gold, oil, Iran or Trump, artificial intelligence (AI) seemed to be on their minds—more specifically, its potential impact on job growth and economic activity. These concerns may be misplaced. AI will likely make some workers more productive, increasing output and the economy’s need for additional capacity. This could ultimately support future job growth.
GRAMMY DRAMA OR JUST BAD MUSIC?
According to Nielsen, the 68th Grammy Awards in February drew 14.41 million viewers. While higher than 2021’s all-time low, it was significantly lower than the estimated 51.7 million who watched in 1984. Defenders might say viewing habits have changed over the past 40 years. We suspect the truth is that the music may have just been better back then.
OIL ON THE RISE; RATES HOLD STEADY
As expected, the Federal Reserve did not cut its target rate during the quarter. Investors still hoped for a cut by year-end, but by late March rising crude oil prices had largely dashed those expectations.
MUSK, MEASURED IN MILLIONS
According to some sources, Elon Musk’s net worth was estimated at $852 billion in February 2026. For perspective, if Musk were to spend $1 million each day, it would take him more than 2,334 years to spend it all.
EUROPEAN RELEVANCE IN QUESTION
The political left, right and middle all bemoaned Europe’s relative weakness during the quarter, whether in military, economic or diplomatic terms. While this became glaringly apparent during the first quarter of 2026, it has been a long time coming. The question remains: What can Europe do to make itself relevant again?
SOURCES:
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index — February 2026, March 11, 2026.
- Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Trade Balance: Goods and Services, Balance of Payments Basis (BOPGSTB)
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, The Employment Situation — February 2026.
- Axios, Las Vegas tourism slump signals wider economic slowdown, Aug. 9, 2025
- CNBC, Oil prices today: WTI, Brent rise amid Middle East tensions involving Iran, March 24, 2026.
- NBC News, Markets: Stocks turn sharply as Trump escalates tensions with Europe over Greenland, Jan. 21, 2026.
- TheStreet, Gold’s biggest drop in decades hides a powerful tailwind, March 23, 2026.
- Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Advances in AI Will Boost Productivity, Living Standards over Time, June 24, 2025.
- CME Group, CME FedWatch Tool, accessed March 29, 2026.
- Forbes, Elon Musk Just Became the First Person Ever Worth $800 Billion After SpaceX Acquired xAI. Feb. 3, 2026
- Responsible Statecraft, Europe’s weakness on Iran, Gaza has radicalized politics at home, March 4, 2026.
- Bloomberg News, Iran war energy fallout is exposing another European weakness, March 7, 2026
- Statista, Share of the EU in the inflation-adjusted global gross domestic product, accessed March 20, 2026.
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