On Friday, October 16, 2026, I ate lunch at one of my regular Indian restaurants here in town. As with most places that have a lunch buffet, the items off the dinner menu are much better. Regardless, their steamtable food is quick, consistent and more than tasty enough.
In case you were wondering, and you probably weren’t, I always get the saag and butter chicken, which they always have.
Over the years, I have developed what I would call a mild familiarity with the people who own the place. No, I don’t send them Christmas cards, and they don’t give me mithai on Diwali. However, we pass pleasantries enough when I enter and leave the restaurant.
Today, as she was running my card, she said: “I don’t know where everyone is today. It has been really weird recently, and I can’t figure it out.” I replied: “That is why I ate so much today. I didn’t want you to have too much left over.”
We both forced a weak laugh. It wasn’t funny by any normal definition of the word.
To be sure, the place was mostly empty at noon. I had noticed it. By mostly empty, I mean about 25% full. It was perhaps a little more crowded than that last week when I visited, but not by much. No, it isn’t the food. In fact, I might argue the kitchen has been upping its game recently.
So, what is happening here? Why is the owner of a normally crowded restaurant telling an acquaintance that business has been “really weird” recently?
Just so you know, one buffet with a water plus tax is $14.73. So, it is more than, say, the McDonald’s down the street. However, it is far from the most expensive place in town. In fact, at least in terms of restaurants, I would say this restaurant is probably around the median price point for lunch.
Interestingly, the said McDonald’s, which I had to pass, appeared to be very crowded. So, too, did the entirety of Mountain Brook Village, which is in one of the wealthiest ZIP codes in the state. (1) In fact, “the Village” was so snarled with traffic, I had to take a very, let’s call it, circuitous route to get back to the office.
This got me to thinking as I was walking back into the building. The cheap restaurant was crowded, as were, apparently, those in the tonier part of town. However, the mid-priced place in the, mostly, mid-priced neighborhood? It was not very crowded at all. It was, as she said, weird.
What gives?
A Tale of Two Numbers
A couple of this week’s economic reports, one in particular, might shed some light on the situation.
At 8:30 EDT on Thursday, October 15, 2026, the U.S. Census Bureau (the Census) released the ‘Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services, September 2026.’ (2) Why the Census feels compelled to track retail sales is anyone’s best guess, but it does.
The report itself is sort of confusing. You see, the Census does something called “seasonal adjusting.” (3) This tries to “smooth out” the economic data based on historical performance at any given point on the calendar.
Of course, this uses historical seasonal patterns to make comparisons between different months more meaningful. That isn’t quite the same thing as predicting future investment returns, but it does make for an interesting contrast. Oh well. I don’t make the rules. I just try to follow them.
When not adjusted for seasonality (as in what actually happened at the cash register), the Census estimated Americans spent $91.977 billion at “food service & drinking places” during September 2026. The numbers were $94.822 billion for August and $93.281 billion for July.
As such, and as far as the business owner can tell and feel, business has indeed been, “weird” for the last two months. However, when seasonally adjusted, as in accounting for recurring seasonal patterns, spending at “food service & drinking places” was actually up 1.1% during the month of September.
It is wizardry I tell you!
Of course, there is nothing nefarious about seasonal adjustments. They are the government’s attempt to assess the underlying strength or validity of the economic data. However, that does not in any way mean the local business owner doesn’t experience the reality of what is happening in their own restaurant. They do. A loss in any given loss is a loss to the owners of the local Indian buffet. It doesn’t matter if the government suggests their business grew during the month, simply because the loss wasn’t as great as it was the same month in previous years.
In essence, a restaurant owner still has bills to pay, regardless of what the national statistics suggest.
Now, I have absolutely no way of knowing what kind of business the restaurant did on October 16, 2025, without demanding the books from the owners, which I am certainly not going to do. Perhaps today’s empty chairs in the restaurant were fewer than the same day last year. Maybe they were more, and they could be the same. I don’t know.
However, does it really matter? Since, after all, in the here and now, I must wonder how profitable today’s lunch service could have been with so many empty tables. Business is down, or, I mean it is weird.
The Cost of Living
Now, going back a few paragraphs, what does it mean when both the cheap and the expensive restaurants seem to be full while the mid-priced joints appear empty?
In this one man’s opinion, based on the recent economic data, this isn’t terribly surprising. After all, according to the ‘Import Price Index,’ which the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released on Friday, October 16, 2026, the cost of imported “fuels & lubricants” has increased 34.5% over the last 12 months ending in September 2026. (4)
Crude petroleum is up 29.8% over that same time period and natural gas up a whopping 96.5%. At least that is what the BLS reported.
As such, these increases in imported energy prices raise questions about the extent to which higher energy costs may be affecting household budgets.
This could mean there is less money in the old budget, wallet, checkbook or purse for non-essentials like, I don’t know, mid-priced lunch buffets.
Think about it this way. What gets “squeezed” the hardest? The two ends or the middle? It doesn’t matter what it is.
Almost by definition, the middle would have to get squeezed. Otherwise, one end would simply be pushing on the other. Ergo, if you are trying to “squeeze” some more money out of your budget, what are some of the first things you cut? This train of thought would suppose those non-essentials in the middle.
While I have no way of knowing how each of you squeezes your monthly budget, I would be willing to bet a lunch buffet at a certain Indian restaurant comes more from the middle than you might initially realize.
And that is what this week’s economic data and today’s lunch at one of my regular haunts got me thinking about.
Thank you for your continued support. As always, I hope this newsletter finds you and your family well. May your blessings outweigh your sorrows on this and every day. Also, please be sure to tune into our podcast, Trading Perspectives, which is available on every platform.
John Norris
Chief Economist
Sources:
- United States Zip Codes – Highest Household Income ZIPs in Alabama. Accessed October 16, 2026.
- Census.gov – Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services, September 2026. October 15, 2026.
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics – What is Seasonal Adjustment? Accessed October 16, 2026.
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics – U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes – September 2026. October 16, 2026.
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