THE SHUTDOWN
The U.S. government officially “shut down” during the 4th quarter of 2025, and the U.S. economy didn’t fall apart. While plenty of people across the country felt impacts from the government impasse, it seems Washington D.C. might have been hurt worst of all.1 That isn’t terribly surprising.
MARKETS UP, CONFIDENCE DOWN
As measured by the S&P 500 Index, U.S. stocks crept higher during the 4th quarter. This was the case, despite numerous public opinion polls suggesting Americans were scared about the economy and the markets.2 So, are investors wrong? Are pollsters wrong? Or is consumer sentiment just doing one thing and saying another?
BEEF PRICES CONTINUE TO RISE
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), beef prices were up 15.8% over the 12 months ending in November 2025. The reduced domestic supply of cattle, combined with continued strong demand, has led to higher prices and hit wallets hard. So, should we now consider cheeseburgers inelastic goods?
JOB GROWTH SLOWS
The unemployment rate rose to a four-year high of 4.6% in November 2025. While most of the weakness seems to have come from the lack of federal government hiring, the private sector created jobs at a slower pace during Q4. The labor market remains historically strong, but the recent slowdown in overall conditions raises questions about consumer spending going forward.3
LOW HIRE, LOW FIRE
Although hiring has somewhat cooled, corporate America layoffs remained limited, creating what some are calling a “low hire and low fire” economy.4 The downside is that we are not creating many new consumers. The upside is that workers apparently feel secure enough in their jobs to keep spending. Combined, it points to stable, if unremarkable, consumer growth ahead.
AI REMAINS A FOCUS
Everybody loves a good story — and this includes U.S. stock investors. The story in artificial intelligence (AI) continues to propel the tech sector higher. Many people appear to feel that AI will fundamentally change our lives and how we conduct business. In short, AI appears to be here to stay.
BOWL SEASON SATURATION
Despite more games than ever, college football’s bowl season seems to have lost a lot of its luster. Including the playoffs, there were over 40 post-season games — many including teams with losing records. Further, some teams with winning records, most notably Notre Dame, opted out entirely. So, has what was once a lot of fun and a reward for having a good season reached a saturation point for both fans and players alike?
A WORLD SERIES FOR THE AGES
The 2025 World Series was what some media outlets called “a series for the ages.” It featured a thrilling 18-inning game, and the deciding Game 7 went into extra innings. According to the television ratings, people who haven’t watched an MLB game in years tuned in to watch. Despite complaints about the LA Dodgers’ payroll and talent advantage, this year’s final contest was, indeed, a classic.
PRECIOUS METALS SURGE
Precious metal prices, notably silver and gold prices, had an amazing run during Q4 of 2025. According to Bloomberg, on September 30, 2025, the “spot price” for silver was $46.65 per ounce. On December 22, 2025, it closed at $69.04 per ounce. During that same time frame, gold climbed from $3,858.96 per ounce to $4,443.61 per ounce. This move may suggest that global investors like hard assets when geopolitical conditions are tense, among other things.
FOURTH QUARTER FED CUTS
The Federal Reserve cut the target overnight lending rate twice during Q4. The final 25-basis-point cut (0.25%) on December 10, 2025, was the result of a 9-3 vote — the first time three members dissented since September 2019. Does this mean the Fed is as confused by the economic data as the rest of us?
FUTURE EUROPEAN RELEVANCE IN QUESTION?
During the 4th quarter, the European Union (EU) appeared to be at something of a crossroads. The debate among investors become readily apparent that it needed deeper integration in order to compete with China and United States — or risk growing more irrelevant. However, would any reform at this point be too little and too late?
INTEREST RATES STAND STILL
According to Bloomberg, at the end of the 3rd quarter of 2025, the U.S. 10-Year Treasury note had a yield-to-maturity of 4.152%. On December 22, 2025, it was 4.167%. Essentially, with everything that happened in the country and the world during the quarter, not much changed.
SOURCES:
- Washington Business Journal -“Shutdown Took Toll on D.C.-Area Economy.” (December 15, 2025)
- Gallup,U.S. Economic Confidence Index, latest available data.
- Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas – “Consumption Concentration May Be Up, Adding to Economic Fragility.”(November 25, 2025)
- U.S. Bank –“U.S. Labor Market: Low-Hire, Low-Fire Economy”(October 22,2025)
This commentary is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Economic and market conditions are subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested in directly.