TECH STOCK VALUATIONS
History suggests U.S. investors have always loved their technology stocks at inflection points in the economy. Most people would probably agree artificial intelligence (AI) will change our lives and how we conduct business. However, Investor’s Business Daily notes that correctly valuing AI stocks and technology continues to remain something of a guessing game.
LOW MARKET VOLATILITY
Given today’s geopolitical turmoil and domestic challenges, one might think the U.S. stock markets would have been more interesting than they were during the 3rd quarter of 2025. Instead, the CBOE VIX index tells a different story: market volatility has been very low, signaling either investor complacency or optimism that the momentum will continue.
OVERSTATED JOBS DATA
After months of almost head-scratching labor market reports, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) announced it had overstated the number of payroll jobs the economy created between April 2024 and March 2025 by 911K. This was a historically significant (0.6%) correction, which called into serious question the true health of the U.S. economy.
BEEFED UP GROCERY BILLS
Beef prices have continued to climb, thanks to the lowest domestic cattle herd since at least 1973, as reported by the Department of Agriculture. While no one likes the Consumer Price Index’s reported 12.8% increase in ground beef prices over the 12-months ending in August 2025, Americans seem willing to pay the price to get their cheeseburgers. Guilty as charged.
THE GOLD RUSH CONTINUES
There seems to be no shortage of explanations for the recent surge in gold/precious metal prices. Foreign buying, U.S. inflation, distrust in global fiat currencies, the potential for a federal government shutdown and Fed rate cuts, among others, have all received the blame. Regardless of the reason, investors have started to wonder whether their jewelry is properly valued for insurance purposes.
CRACKER BARREL CROSSFIRE
Thanks to social media — and the baffling ways some issues go viral while others don’t — corporate rebranding has become a risky proposition. In the 3rd quarter, Cracker Barrel rolled out updates to its logo and image. The backlash, whether real or fabricated, was intense. What are marketing teams to do if “bots” and “provocateurs” can throttle otherwise sound decisions?
THE FED FINALLY CUT RATES
After months of speculating and waiting, the Federal Reserve finally cut the target overnight lending rate at its September 2025 FOMC meeting. Although the official inflation gauges might be higher than the Fed would like, recent weakness in the labor markets apparently has it somewhat concerned.
BUT RATE CUTS ≠ CHEAPER MORTGAGES
U.S. consumers, and residential real estate brokers/agents of all stripes, are having to relearn that mortgage rates don’t necessarily fall when the Fed cuts the target overnight rate. In fact, they sometimes even go up. The reason for this is simple. The Fed cuts the 1-day price of money in the U.S. economy, and mortgages generally have much longer final maturities than that.
LAISSEZ LES BON TEMPS ROULER
Absent a severe outside shock or major downturn in the economy, the 3rd quarter seemed to prove the U.S. stock market’s current path of least resistance is to move higher. While that can and will change over time, U.S. investors appear complacent to let the good times roll in their portfolios for a little while longer.
TARIFFS HIT PROFIT MARGINS
Thus far, it seems U.S. businesses and importers have absorbed much of the cost of the administration’s tariffs, perhaps helping to limit consumer price increases. However, ultimately, companies will likely have to cut costs elsewhere to maintain profit margins.
PROFITS FROM ACROSS THE POND
Despite talk of Europe’s increased irrelevancy, investors have gobbled up euros, British pounds and other European currencies in 2025. If their issuers were truly irrelevant, would investors really be buying them? Probably not. Still, without reform, the European economy is at danger of falling further the behind the U.S. and Asia.
CRYPTO CONTINUES TO CLIMB
Cryptocurrencies enjoyed another nice run during the quarter. Investors seem to favor them when geopolitical turmoil is relatively high and central banks start cutting rates. Easier access through retail products like ETFs may also be fueling demand — perhaps a combination of the two.