This past Thursday night, I watched the Steelers vs. Bengals game on television. It was an exciting game — and surprising one, at least for me — that the Bengals won. After all, according to ESPN.com, Cincinnati was a 5.5 point underdog with a +215 money line.
One of the things I noticed about the telecast was how “slick” everything was. The entire production seemed to drip with money, abundance and sanitization. There were no dirty uniforms or mud of any type. The cheerleaders all looked like models, and the fans appeared to be relatively well-heeled.
It is a far cry from that famous picture of Y.A. Tittle, all bloodied, beaten and on his knees in the endzone.
While I don’t remember every commercial that aired during the contest, I do remember seeing at least a couple of ads for gambling/gaming websites or outlets of some sort. These things seem to be just about everywhere.
I will let you in on a little secret.
If the odds were stacked in the consumer’s favor, there wouldn’t be gambling commercials of any sort at any time. Why? Well, the industry wouldn’t exist. Think about it.
Around 25 years ago, I went to a bachelor party that ended the evening at one of the higher-end casinos in Atlantic City. The cheapest blackjack table in the place, and I searched high and low, was $20. Using Consumer Price Index (CPI) data from August 2000 through August 2025, that would be the equivalent to $37.44 in today’s dollars.
That didn’t deter people, including yours truly, from lining up several people deep to wait their turn at a table. However, I didn’t stay for long after I saw one guy throw 2 $100 bills on the table. The dealer gave him 10 plastic discs and shoved his money into a slot in the table.
That is when I came to the following conclusion: the poker chip is the world’s most insidious invention, since it turns your money into something that is and isn’t money at the same time.
After all, no one puts as much emotional value on a poker chip as much as they do a dollar bill.
Think about it. How long would people stay at the tables if they had to physically take out their wallet and fork over actual cash to play EACH hand.
So, I backed away and walked around the room. It was huge, and pretty posh. Perhaps it was a little too much so. After all, it got me to thinking about how there wouldn’t be any casinos, anywhere, if the odds didn’t favor the house. Further, and ergo, the nicer the casino, the more it must be making off its clients.
At the time, I had a 1-year old at the house and wasn’t exactly swimming in cash. So, I stepped back out onto the boardwalk and grabbed an enormous slice of cheese pizza for about $2. Of course, that was too good of a deal, so I had another.
And, there you have it. I am one of the oddballs who goes to Atlantic City to gamble and ends up eating pizza on the boardwalk. What’s more, I would do the same thing again in a heartbeat. Twenty-five years later, and I still remember how good that pizza was.
To be sure, I have been in a casino since then, but I don’t make a habit of it. In fact, it has always been, shall I say, a sideline or detour from the real reason why I am in a certain location. For instance, I have been to Las Vegas three times, but never once was gambling the reason why I was there. On two occasions, I was a presenter at a conference, and I saw a concert at the Sphere for the third.
However, it seems all the casinos I have visited, regardless of location and/or condition, have something in common. It is a certain collective sense of desperation mixed with a misplacement of hope. After all, isn’t that what casinos are ultimately selling? Hope? The hope that you are going to win big, hit the jackpot or have your ship come in.
To be sure, not everyone in a casino fits this description, but a lot of folks do.
So, what does the proliferation of casinos across the country say about us? Let alone all of the gambling websites and phone applications? For one, it would seem as though a lot of people are out to make a quick buck. From the operators to the consumers to the public officials clamoring for them.
The thing is, gambling really is sort of a zero-sum game. If only you sit at the table or machine long enough, the math/odds suggest the average person will lose money. What’s kind of weird is that most people understand this. At least I think it is sort of weird.
So, why is gambling, in all of its forms, exploding across the world — particularly the western/developed world and the United States? When it is a zero-sum game and the house has an edge?
Would you buy a stock if you knew it would go down in value the longer you held it?
In my opinion, and mine only, gambling is growing rapidly because people need the monetary hope that it provides. I know that might sound completely nuts to some people, but I believe it to be true. The difference, I would venture, between plunking down $5 to buy a Mega Millions ticket and going to a casino is that no one seriously believes they are going to win the lottery. However, I know people who honestly believe they are going to beat Vegas.
Perhaps they will, but the odds are they won’t.
No, the odds are that the gambling industry will continue to grow as long as there is an underlying measure of economic desperation, a need for hope, if you will. Then, at some point, the industry will become so saturated with competitors that it will cease to be profitable. There will simply be too many outlets for too few consumers.
Put another way, the supply will grow faster than the demand. Even gambling isn’t immune to basic economics.
Speaking of gambling, had you taken the Bengals the other night, you would have done pretty well for yourself. Of course, I wouldn’t have done so, and didn’t, because I didn’t think the Joe Burrow-less Bengals stood a chance.
Thank you for your continued support. As always, I hope this newsletter finds you and your family well. May your blessings outweigh your sorrows on this and every day. Also, please be sure to tune into our podcast, Trading Perspectives, which is available on every platform.
John Norris
Chief Economist and Chief Investment Officer, Oakworth Capital Bank
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